How depleted weapons stockpiles could affect the Iran conflict

How Depleted Weapon Stockpiles Could Influence the Iran Conflict

President Donald Trump asserted that the United States maintains an “effectively limitless reserves” of critical munitions. Meanwhile, Iran’s defense ministry emphasized its capability to endure beyond initial expectations. While the availability of weapons isn’t the sole factor in determining the conflict’s outcome—Ukraine, for instance, faced overwhelming Russian firepower early on—stockpiles remain a pivotal element.

High Initial Engagement

From the outset, the conflict has seen intense activity. Both parties have consumed ordnance at a rate surpassing production capacity. According to the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), US and Israeli forces executed over 2,000 attacks, each deploying multiple projectiles. Iran, in turn, launched 571 missiles and 1,391 drones, though many were intercepted.

Diminishing Iranian Output

Iran’s missile and drone activity has declined sharply. Western analysts note a reduction from hundreds per day to dozens. Gen. Dan Caine, America’s top commander, reported a 86% drop in ballistic missile launches since the conflict began. Within the last 24 hours, US Central Command (Centcom) observed a 23% decrease. The slowdown suggests challenges in sustaining rapid fire.

Before the war, estimates placed Iran’s short-range ballistic missile stockpile above 2,000 units. However, mass production of Shahed one-way attack drones—exported to Russia, which has used them effectively in Ukraine—may have strained resources. Even the US has adapted the design, yet Caine noted a 73% decline in drone deployments.

With US and Israeli jets now dominating Iranian airspace, the country’s air defenses and fighter force have been severely weakened. This aerial advantage enables targeting of key infrastructure, such as missile silos and production facilities. Centcom anticipates the next phase will focus on neutralizing these assets, potentially reducing Iran’s combat readiness.

Limitations of Air Superiority

Despite air dominance, eradicating Iran’s weapon stockpiles entirely may prove challenging. The nation’s size, comparable to France, allows for hidden caches. Historical precedents, like Israel’s prolonged bombing of Gaza and the US campaign in Yemen, demonstrate that air strikes alone don’t always eliminate hostile capabilities.

Mark Cancian, a former US Marine colonel at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), highlighted the shift to cost-effective “stand-in” weapons. Initially, the US relied on long-range, high-cost stand-off weapons like Tomahawk cruise missiles. Now, cheaper alternatives such as JDAM bombs are being used. Cancian argues this strategy allows sustained operations “nearly indefinitely,” though targets may dwindle over time.

“After the initial standoff, the US can now deploy less expensive missiles and bombs,” Cancian stated. “This enables prolonged engagement without exhausting resources.”

As the war continues, the tempo of attacks may slow. With limited supplies of advanced air defense systems, the US faces logistical hurdles. The conflict’s endurance will test both the resilience of Iran’s stockpiles and the capacity of the US to maintain production levels, even as it seeks to secure strategic advantages.