After 16 years in power, can Viktor Orban finally be unseated?

After 16 Years in Power, Can Viktor Orban Finally Be Unseated?

In a rare moment of frustration, Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, let his temper show during a rally in Györ on 27 March. “All they stand for is anger, hatred, and destruction,” he exclaimed, addressing opposition demonstrators who had been chanting “Filthy Fidesz” throughout his speech. This outburst disrupted his usual image as a composed leader steering the nation through turbulent times.

“All these scandals are just the usual suspects trying to build a narrative,” says Zoltan Kiszelly, a political analyst from the government think tank Szazadveg. “When the opposition lose the election, this gives them an excuse to allege ‘fraud’.”

The opposition, led by Peter Magyar’s Tisza party, has surged in recent polls, now holding a 58% lead over Orban’s Fidesz, which stands at 35%. This shift marks a significant challenge for the prime minister, who has dominated Hungarian politics since 2010. Despite his efforts to rally supporters and target undecided voters, the pressure is mounting.

Orban’s political journey has been bolstered by alliances with global figures like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Yet, he has long been a source of tension within the EU, notably for his stance on Ukraine. The 12 April parliamentary election is now seen as a pivotal moment for the continent’s nationalist movements, with analysts tracking a growing erosion of public trust.

Endre Hann of Median agency notes a dramatic change in public sentiment. “We can notice a big change in public perception,” he states. In January, 44% of respondents believed Fidesz would win, but by March, 47% had shifted their confidence to Tisza. This trend highlights a deepening skepticism toward the ruling elite, a sentiment that has intensified in Hungary.

The voter discontent targeting “corrupt ruling elites” has now turned against Orban. His government faces accusations of misusing public funds, with state contracts reportedly favoring allies. Projects such as bridges, stadiums, and motorways have drawn scrutiny, and his son-in-law, Istvan Tiborcz, is linked to several prominent hotels. Meanwhile, his childhood friend Lörinc Meszaros, once a simple gas fitter, has become the country’s wealthiest individual. Orban and his allies consistently deny any wrongdoing.

As the final weeks of the campaign unfold, the question remains: can Orban pivot blame onto Ukraine and its European backers to salvage his political standing? And will the charismatic lawyer challenging him succeed in persuading rural voters, his traditional base, that a change in leadership will bring a more compassionate, functional Hungary?

The opposition’s tactics include alleged voter intimidation, while a Russian-backed plot to stage a fake assassination attempt on Orban has added drama to the race. Despite these efforts, Fidesz insists the opposition is fabricating a crisis. “This is not the ‘calm strength’ or ‘strategic calm’ image,” writes Gabor Török, a respected political analyst. “If the remaining two weeks unfold like this, it does not bode well for the government side.”

A loss for Orban could send shockwaves beyond Hungary. Michael Ignatieff, former rector of the Central European University, argues that Budapest is the heart of illiberal democracy. “This is not just an election,” he says. “This is a referendum on the entire model of authoritarian rule that Orban represents.”