Steve Rosenberg: Russia seeks diplomatic and economic gains from Iran war

Steve Rosenberg: Russia Seeks Diplomatic and Economic Gains from Iran War

Within a single week, two phone calls have taken place between the leaders of Russia and Iran. Amid ongoing US and Israeli strikes on Iran, Russian President Vladimir Putin has positioned himself as a global mediator. Yet, this image is difficult to reconcile with his role in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which the UN General Assembly had denounced as a breach of the UN Charter. Despite advocating for a “swift de-escalation and political resolution” of the Iran conflict, Russia continues its war in Ukraine. The country’s relationship with Iran is defined by a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” agreement, which Putin recently reaffirmed. However, this partnership does not extend to a mutual defense pact.

Instead, Moscow offers mediation in the Iran dispute, leveraging its connections with Gulf states, Iran’s leadership, and other nations. This move aims to enhance Russia’s standing in the Middle East and build ties with Washington. The Kremlin maintains close ties with the Trump administration, viewing them as advantageous for its war efforts in Ukraine. Consequently, Putin has avoided public criticism of Trump over the Iran conflict. “Putin wants to be helpful,” Trump stated after the call. “I said, ‘You could be more helpful by getting the Ukraine-Russia war over with. That would be more helpful.'”

While promoting de-escalation in Iran, Russia also benefits economically from the conflict. Recent spikes in global oil prices have bolstered Moscow’s revenues, crucial for sustaining its war in Ukraine. The federal budget relies on oil exports at $59 per barrel, but prices have fluctuated, recently surpassing $120. Although they have since dipped, oil remains significantly above the $59 threshold. Trump’s proposal to waive oil-related sanctions on certain countries further highlights this economic angle, potentially providing Russia with a larger financial advantage. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that such a move would be a “serious blow” to Kyiv.

Pro-Kremlin outlets, like Komsomolskaya Pravda, have embraced the situation, noting that “expensive oil is a reason [for the West] to cancel sanctions.” While the Kremlin avoids public rebuke of Trump, some Russian media have been critical. The Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper, for instance, declared on Tuesday that the “peace president” had “simply lost his mind,” comparing him to a figure “with no clothes. Or rather, no sanity.”