US experience fighting Iran offers lessons for China, experts say
US Experience in Conflict with Iran Offers Strategic Insights for China, Experts Say
US experience fighting Iran offers lessons – As the Iran conflict advances into its third month, it is offering China a critical opportunity to observe how U.S. military systems function under pressure. Analysts emphasize that this evolving situation underscores the importance of understanding the adversary’s role in shaping the outcome of any battlefield. CNN engaged with military strategists from China, Taiwan, and other regions to explore how the recent engagement in the Persian Gulf could inform potential confrontations between Beijing and Washington. They caution that China must avoid overestimating its own capabilities, while remaining vigilant about its strategic blind spots and the broader implications of such a conflict.
The PLA’s Rapid Expansion of Offensive Capabilities
China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been accelerating its development of advanced offensive weaponry in recent years, particularly in missile technology. This includes the deployment of hypersonic glide vehicles, which are designed to bypass traditional anti-missile defenses by maneuvering at extreme speeds. The PLA Air Force is also significantly increasing its fleet of fifth-generation stealth fighters, a development highlighted by the British defense think tank RUSI. According to RUSI, the J-20 jet, China’s equivalent to the U.S. F-35, will be deployed in large numbers during long-range precision strike operations. Additionally, China is working on a stealth bomber comparable to the U.S. B-2 and B-21 models, further enhancing its strategic reach.
Despite these advancements, experts warn that China’s focus on offensive capabilities may come at the expense of its defensive readiness. Fu Qianshao, a retired Chinese air force colonel, pointed out that Iran’s ability to circumvent U.S. anti-missile systems like the Patriot and THAAD provides a stark lesson. “We must prioritize identifying weaknesses in our defense systems to ensure we remain unassailable in future conflicts,” Fu emphasized during an interview with CNN. This insight comes as China continues to modernize its military, but the lessons from Iran’s tactics suggest that a robust defense is as vital as a strong offense.
Iran’s Tactical Innovation and U.S. Precision Strikes
The Persian Gulf conflict has demonstrated the effectiveness of Iran’s hybrid warfare approach, combining relatively simple yet cost-effective technologies with strategic aggression. Analysts note that Iran’s use of low-cost Shahed drones and ballistic missiles has enabled it to penetrate U.S. air defenses, showcasing how even primitive systems can disrupt advanced military operations. In contrast, the U.S. has deployed sophisticated weaponry, such as F-35s and B-2 stealth bombers, alongside guided munitions from platforms like the B-1 and B-52 bombers. This multifaceted strategy has allowed the U.S. to target key infrastructure, including missile silos, naval assets, and bridges.
“The mix of high-tech precision strikes and cost-effective drone swarms highlights the evolving nature of modern warfare,” said a defense expert in the U.S. The report underscores how China must prepare for similar scenarios if a conflict with the U.S. escalates. Fu Qianshao added that Beijing’s military planners should integrate lessons from Iran’s tactics to strengthen their own defensive strategies. “We need to ensure our critical sites, airfields, and ports are fortified against both high-tech and low-cost threats,” he stated.
Taiwan as a Potential Flashpoint
While the Iran conflict provides a blueprint for U.S.-China military interactions, Taiwan remains a focal point in discussions about potential clashes. The Chinese Communist Party has repeatedly declared its intent to reunify with Taiwan, even though it has not controlled the island for decades. President Xi Jinping has not excluded the possibility of using military force to achieve this goal, raising concerns about the strategic implications of such an action.
Analysts in Taiwan acknowledge that China’s military is now capable of matching U.S. high-tech precision weaponry and outmaneuvering Iran’s low-cost drone swarms. “Long-range rockets and drone swarms will be central to China’s operations against Taiwan,” said Chieh Chung, a researcher at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research. This capability is bolstered by China’s dominance in drone manufacturing, with analysts estimating that its civilian producers could generate one billion weaponized drones annually within a year, as noted in a 2025 report by the War on the Rocks analytical platform.
However, Taiwan is not without its own preparations. The island’s military has been working to improve its countermeasures against drone attacks, though recent assessments suggest these efforts are still insufficient. A government watchdog report warned that current Taiwanese drone defenses are “ineffective” and present a “major security risk” to critical infrastructure. Gene Su, managing director of Thunder Tiger, the leading drone manufacturer in Taiwan, argued that mass production is essential to counter China’s growing arsenal. “We must operate nonstop to keep pace with our enemies,” he said, highlighting the urgency of Taiwan’s defense modernization.
Shifting Dynamics in the Pacific
Meanwhile, the U.S. is recalibrating its strategic outlook, recognizing that a conflict in the Pacific could see it on the defensive rather than the offensive. Adm. Samuel Paparo, head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, testified in April that drones are increasingly altering the cost dynamics of warfare, favoring the side with greater offensive capacity. “Drones have made it more expensive for the aggressor to sustain attacks,” he explained, noting the need for the U.S. to adapt its tactics to potential scenarios involving rapid drone deployment.
Experts agree that the Iran conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in U.S. military systems, which China is keen to exploit. The U.S. experience with Iranian drones and missiles serves as a reminder that even the most advanced forces can be challenged by innovative, cost-effective strategies. For China, this suggests that while its offensive capabilities are formidable, its ability to withstand a sustained campaign depends on addressing defensive weaknesses and refining its understanding of regional dynamics.
The lessons from the Iran conflict are also relevant to the broader U.S.-China rivalry. As the two nations continue to build their military arsenals, the Persian Gulf serves as a test case for how each side might approach a larger-scale confrontation. Whether in the context of Taiwan or a potential Pacific war, the balance between offense and defense will determine the outcome. Analysts suggest that China’s ability to replicate Iran’s success in countering U.S. defenses could give it a decisive edge in any future conflict, provided it remains agile and adaptive in its military planning.
