Lebanon enters talks with Israel but with no cards to play

Lebanon enters talks with Israel but with no cards to play

Lebanon, once more at the brink of conflict, has seen President Joseph Aoun propose direct negotiations with Israel, a bold move for two nations that do not formally acknowledge each other. The initiative comes amid ongoing tensions, yet the Lebanese government feels constrained in its ability to enforce decisive action. The fragile ceasefire, which concluded the Israel-Hezbollah war in November 2024, has not halted all hostilities, with Israeli strikes continuing to target Hezbollah-linked individuals and locations.

Aoun’s Vision for Disarmament

During a meeting at Baabda Palace in August, Aoun, a former army commander, expressed hope for resolving the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons, a long-standing source of division in Lebanon. He had pledged to disarm the militia after its defeat in a previous conflict, believing the task achievable. “I was born an optimist,” he remarked, reflecting his resolve despite the challenges.

The Split Over Hezbollah

For many, Hezbollah is a shield against Israeli aggression, seen as a necessary force in a country where the state’s reach is limited. Yet critics argue the group prioritizes Iran’s interests, pulling Lebanon into wars it did not choose. This duality was starkly tested in February when the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a US-Israeli attack on Tehran triggered Hezbollah’s rocket strikes into Israel. The retaliation was framed as a response to Khamenei’s assassination and the relentless Israeli bombings during the ceasefire.

Historical Roots of the Conflict

Hezbollah, known as the Party of God, emerged in the 1980s during Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon. Backed by Iran, it has since maintained a stronghold, controlling regions like Dahieh in Beirut’s south and parts of the eastern Bekaa Valley. The Taif Agreement of 1989 aimed to end Lebanon’s civil war by requiring militia disarmament, but Hezbollah resisted, framing itself as a resistance movement against Israeli occupation. Israel’s 2000 troop withdrawal left unresolved territorial disputes, and UN Resolution 1701 in 2006, which demanded Hezbollah’s disarmament, remains unfulfilled.

Lebanon’s Dilemma

Despite Aoun’s efforts, the Lebanese government struggles to assert authority over Hezbollah, which wields significant political and social influence. The group operates schools, hospitals, and other services in areas where the state is absent, embedding itself deeply in Lebanese life. Aoun’s policy of a “state monopoly on arms” seeks to centralize control, but his warning that unilateral disarmament could spark renewed violence underscores the precarious balance.

With the recent US ceasefire agreement and Israel’s escalating strikes, the stage is set for a new round of diplomacy. However, the outcome remains uncertain, as Hezbollah’s refusal to discuss nationwide disarmament leaves Lebanon with few options. The upcoming meeting between ambassadors in Washington could mark a turning point, yet the path to lasting peace seems fraught with challenges.

“We can’t let the country descend into another civil war,” he said when we met in August.